摩根史坦利2021經濟趨勢報告 三大必看重點

疫情後的世界究竟會呈現甚麼樣的面貌?經歷了2020年,我們看到數位轉型已經成了全球企業乃至於個人生活的現在進行式,展望2021年,除了延續數位轉型這個浪潮之外,還有哪些趨勢是值得我們注意的?

今天要來和大家分享的就是摩根史坦利在三月出版的「 2021年十大全球經濟趨勢」,擷取其中三個重要經濟預測跟大家分享。

1.Soggy Markets and a Surging Economy 疲弱的股市與強勁復甦的經濟

目前普遍的論調是經濟前景樂觀,各行各業準備迎接重啟商機,因此股市也沒有看淡的理由,但是大摩的這份報告卻在第一點就提出不同的想法:他們認為除了通膨的疑慮會導致股市的回檔之外,2020年因紓困金投入股市而引起的瘋狂漲勢,可能隨著百業復甦,消費者有更多花錢的去處而告終,最後一個理由則是認為股市其實早已將復甦所帶來的效益,提前反映到股價中。

【讀原文學英語】

The economic recovery is likely to continue, but markets could easily start moving sideways, for three basic reasons.

Massive stimulus is still lifting economies but threatens to revive inflation and raise bond yields, with worse consequences for stocks than most investors realize.

The 2020 surge in savings, much of which went into the stock markets, is also unlikely to continue, particularly as the pandemic winds down and consumers start spending again.

Moreover, investors came early on to view the pandemic as a passing natural disaster, and its end is already priced in to record high valuations.

2.Bottoming Inflation 築底的通膨

在疫情底下各國的政府進行的大撒幣動作,不需要有引起物價膨脹的顧慮,但是展望未來,大摩歸納出四個重要因素,亟有可能引起通膨,這四個因素都是長期的趨勢,值得我們隨時觀察,尤其人力需求緊張這部份幾乎走到哪都聽到招工不易,而政府花大錢也勢必要從稅收中回收,這些都為通膨埋下伏筆。

這四部份包含:人口減少、反全球化、生產力下降、政府債務。

【讀原文學英語】

Four factors are threatening to revive inflation:

Depopulation:Growth in the global working-age population is falling, and a declining labor supply tends to increase wages.

Deglobalization:Slumping global trade growth since the 2008 financial crisis continues to reduce competition.

Declining productivity:The global decline, driven in part by governments bailing out unproductive companies, raises businesses cost and pushes up consumer prices.

Debt: Rising government debt, including trillions to pay for pandemic stimulus packages, could be the jolt that reawakens inflation.

3. Housing in Demand  強勁的房市

當投資人有通膨疑慮的時候,往往轉向傳統的避險方式來分散風險,其中之一就是購買房地產,在2020 年全球各主要國家房價幾乎都上漲,放眼未來大摩認為還有三個理由讓房地產價格繼續上漲:各國央行將短期利率調降,使得三十年期的房貸利率來到新低點,而房屋供給有限,在疫情過後,更多的小家庭不願意住在太過壅擠的狹小空間裡,因而近一步產生購買房產的意願,這三者的綜合效果預計讓房價持續上漲。

【讀原文學英語】

With inflation looming, investors are turning to traditional hedges against it, including housing.

90% of the world’s central banks have dropped short-term rates to record lows, which has in turn pushed 30-year mortgage rates to record lows—under 3% in the U.S. and even less in Europe.

On the supply side, the stock of existing single-family homes available for sale is at an all-time low, relative to the adult population.

After the pandemic dies down, lingering housing demand pressure from young families fed up with cramped spaces may continue to drive up home prices.

結語:

2020 年的股市表現和經濟脫鉤,那斯達克指數於2020年漲43.6%,標普年增幅達16.3%,道瓊年漲7.3%。在2021 經濟全面復甦之際,股市的表現又將如何?

當人們不再待在家裡上網買股票,而是將紓困金分散到生活各項開支的時候,資金是否仍會重壓在股市?股市還會繼續再創高峰嗎?因應通膨的疑慮,房市成為大家避險的首選,在2021年房市的熱潮會繼續下去嗎?

大摩對於2021的經濟預測具有相當的參考價值,也讓我們在疫苗開始施打之際能夠參考各家說法,進一步做出適當的投資決策,分享給你。

Jeff 商務英語

Jeff Bsiness English

J 觀點商業英文筆記(Jeff Business English)創辦人,現為知名付費訂閱平台Pressplay駐站名師,商業英語類第一名。

曾任職於財星全球五百大科技公司,擔任海外市場開發經理。長達15年新事業開發與科技行銷經驗,深度經營美國、印度、俄羅斯以及中東市場客戶,曾獲得年度「市場開發最佳貢獻獎」,每年主導及參與的營收超過台幣百億元。

網址:pressplay.cc/jeff

寫信給Jeff :  formosajeff@gmail.com


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